Why bicycle mode share is (and will stay) less than 1%

I have always maintained that bicycle mode share in the U.S. will stay well below 1% of all trips as long as there's abundant and cheap gasoline. This superb article in The Guardian makes the case, brilliantly. In the early 1970s, existing high gas prices from declining U.S. production -- followed by the Arab Oil Embargo -- put prices and availability out of reach for most folks. For 3 years, bicycles sold like snow shovels on the eve of a storm; bicycle shops struggled to keep pace. Bicycling became widespread, and an accepted form of transportation.

Several brief excerpts from the article:

In 1973, 252 bicycle-oriented bills were introduced in 42 states. The Federal-Aid Highway Act of the same year provided $120m for bikeways over three years.

And hundreds of articles in the mainstream press demonstrated that there was an alternative. If National Geographic was to publish a spread today similar to the one from 1973 it would likely have glossy adverts from the likes of Cannondale, Specialized and Trek, America’s leading homegrown bicycle brands. The three were founded during the boom years

US bicycle sales, which had been rolling along at 6 million a year, shot up to 9 million in 1971, 14 million in 1972 and 15.3 million the following year, according to a Bank of America report.

The bike had turned out to be the hula hoop of the 1970s: all the rage one minute, all but forgotten the next. Bike sales in the US fell by half within months. Despite the obvious flip to cycling in America from the 1973 Opec oil crisis – when fuel was in short supply and getting around by car became expensive and, because of oil-saving speed restrictions, slower – cycling hadn’t changed the world.

The bike-friendly John Volpe left the Department of Transportation to become the US Ambassador to Italy. State highway planners reined back what had been grandiose bikeway plans. Bike shop lines thinned out to nothing. Bicycle manufacturers cancelled overseas orders.

In the words of the chairman of the Bicycle Manufacturing Association of America to a Senate committee in 1976: “The boom has turned into a bust.”  [Full article ...]

Unfortunately, we may not live to see this repeated, much less ingrained. Climate change (emissions) alone are not going to sway Americans to at least try other modes. Indications are, pump prices won't be increasing anytime soon, and even if they are, it won't be nearly enough to change driver behavior. The ability to extract vast amounts of oil from multiple sources, using advanced technologies such as "Fracking" can readily put the world in an oil glut. As such, and regardless of what some advocacy orgs like to think and preach, the prospect for bicycling as mainstream transportation in the U.S. will remain bleak.

Transportation as big an issue, if not more so than Power Plant

Co-authored by Angela Connolly -- Everyone who consumes fossil fuels is complicit in the destruction of our planet's ecosystem, and thus our life support systems (as well as that of millions of other species that share the planet with us). It can be difficult to acknowledge one’s own piece in the puzzle, however. Fossil fuels are at the root of industrial civilization, and the American way of life. While it's important to hold people, corporations, and governments accountable - especially when things go horribly wrong, prosecutions are rare. Nevertheless, pumping up one’s own frustration and aggression is generally not effective, unless channeled through an organized advocacy effort. It can also be harmful to your own health and well being.

In the wake of the Gulf oil spill, and dozens of smaller yet similar incidents each year, you would think more folks would at least try to reduce their oil dependency. That and the dire consequences of climate change. At 71%, transportation accounts for the lion's share of oil consumption, and is second only to electricity in emissions. Yet the car remains the overwhelming choice, even for the shortest trips.

Here in Newark, we are an award winning bikeable (and walkable) city, yet a large portion of Main Street traffic is generated from adjacent communities, nearby student housing, etc. Trips that can be easily made on foot or by bike. Further disappointing is the lack of car-free or car-lite incentives that could be offered to students by the University of Delaware, as a means to reduce traffic congestion and improve quality of life. Like most - if not all American universities, this doesn't appear on their radar (certainly not in a Google search).

To summarize, the single greatest contribution folks can make is reduced driving. When it comes to replacing car trips, bicycling is a fun and easy way to go. There are other changes we can make as well. Here are 7 quick tips to ponder the next time you are brought to idle as a miles long oil train crawls its way to the Delaware City Refinery:

• Change your vehicle use patterns; use your car a lot less or not at all. Bike, walk, and/or use public transportation.
• If you must drive, be sure to have a fuel-efficient vehicle or car pool.
• Aggregate your trips, so there’s 1 weekly shopping trip, for example, instead of 4 or 5.
• Reconsider and reduce travel by air, i.e. telecommuting, Skype, etc.
• Buy products that are produced locally, not half a world away. In the same vein, buy fruits & vegetables in season, and produced by local farmers (if possible).
• Buy used products instead of new ones, which will reduce oil use both in production and transportation. Goodwill, Craig’s List, garage sales, to name a few. Also, watch for usable items that people place out for the trash - you would be surprised at the items that can be found on the curb! You or someone you know might be able to use these items. Just make sure that there are no tags on these items marking them for donation to organizations such as the Purple Heart or Cancer associations. Otherwise, they are up for grabs!
• Eliminate, reduce, and/or re-use plastics, which are derived from petroleum. Reusable shopping bags are a great first step. Our oceans are filling up with plastic; plastic that harms wildlife and never biodegrades, and enters the food chain and leaches toxic chemicals. For those of you who enjoy crafting, here's a great idea to make items from "plarn", which is yarn made from plastic bags.

Shopping by bike can be fun and easy. This errand included two rolls of carpet, Hibiscus, and a 6-pack.

This article isn't to say everyone can just drop the car and switch transportation modes. Much depends on circumstances, including where we choose to live. But imagine the impact if more folks made just a small effort, perhaps commuting or running errands by bike or on foot just 1 day a week. I'm not counting on it anytime soon, though, with plummeting gas prices.

UD terminates Data Centers project for STAR Campus

UDaily, 9:30 a.m., July 10, 2014 -- The University of Delaware announced today it has terminated its lease agreement with The Data Centers, LLC (TDC), putting a halt to TDC’s plans to develop a data center on the University’s Science, Technology & Advanced Research (STAR) Campus. 

Following analysis of TDC’s plans, the UD Working Group concluded that the proposed facility, which included a 279-megawatt cogeneration power plant, is not consistent with a first class science and technology campus and high quality development to which UD is committed. The findings are detailed in the Group’s report. View the report PDF on UD’s website.

“The University is committed to providing economic development opportunities for the region and state,” says University of Delaware President Patrick T. Harker. “Moreover, it is extremely important that development on the STAR Campus, which is held to the highest standards, is appropriate both for the short and the long term, and that future generations of students will have a top-quality education. We have carefully examined The Data Centers’ plans, and have determined that they are not a good fit for the STAR Campus.” [Full article ...]

Now, let's get on with developing the STAR Campus in a green, sustainable manner.

Related: Coverage in the Wilmington News Journal.

Jonathan Harker: Failure to tackle air pollution kills over 25,000 per year

Too bad our Harker can't get the facts straight when it comes to air quality

By Jonathan Harker | Bike BIZ (UK) -- With the evidence stacking up, will a new official public health report prompt the government to put serious cash behind cycling?

Air pollution has been making the headlines recently, but this week's report from the government's own Public Health England (PHE) has linked long-term exposure to pollution to a shocking 25,000 deaths, in 2010.

With the health benefits of cycling in reducing obesity and the burden on the NHS already well covered, this is yet another reason for improving cycling conditions. So expect a few billion to be dedicated to cycle lanes, cycle traffic lights, etc, in the near future. Probably.

Location is one of the deciding factors in the likelihood of air pollution killing you. The report said: "Central estimates of the fraction of mortality attributable to long-term exposure to current levels of anthropogenic (human-made) particulate air pollution range from around 2.5 per cent in some local authorities in rural areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland and between 3 and 5 per cent in Wales, to over 8 per cent in some London boroughs." [Continue reading ...]

Blue Hens For Clean Air: Is this what YOU want at UD?

Learn all about the power plant slated for the University of Delaware STAR campus in this short video put together by a group of UD students and alumni. Residents, students and alumni are all questioning why the University administration is pushing this power plant.

 

On Earth Day 2009 the University of Delaware announced detailed plans to cut campus‐wide emissions by 20% by 2020. This action plan is among the most aggressive commitments by any University or College in the world. In announcing the University's Climate Action Plan, President Harker also set interim targets for carbon emissions, including reductions of 5 percent by 2012 and 10 percent by 2015, compared with the 2008 levels that were measured in a comprehensive carbon inventory of the campus. ~ UD's Climate Action Plan (not)

Poster's note: A promise broken in the name of lucrative profits and short term economic gain. It appears making money trumps all sense of environmental responsibility and stewardship. UD President Patrick Harker, Governor Jack Markell, and the City of Newark should all be ashamed of themselves. Sign the petition now, demanding an end to this backwards proposal.

Study: Evaluating of the health impact of the power plant
Video: Threat from global warming heightened in latest U.N. report (1:16)

Per capita VMT drops for ninth straight year

Cross-posted from State Smart Transportation Initiative

Excerpts:
Unlike other past dips in driving, this recent downward shift has had no clear, lasting connection to economic trends or gas prices. Evidence suggests that the decline is likely due to changing demographics, saturated highways, and a rising preference for compact, mixed-use neighborhoods, which reduce the need for driving. Some key factors that pushed VMT upward for decades – including a growing workforce and rising automobile ownership – have also slowed considerably. SSTI released a report last September outlining the many contributing factors, with references to supporting literature.

By now, some DOTs have acknowledged the downward trends in their states and begun to question what it means for their agencies—particularly when it translates into falling revenues, as in Oregon. It appears this has not affected investment priorities significantly in most states, but it has changed the way some DOTs now view future travel needs. Several recently updated long-range transportation plans reflect this shift. [Full article ...]

Poster's note: The below links provide some compelling arguments for why VMT will never return to its former upward trajectory:

“Peak Oil Demand” = Peak Oil
Young Americans Are Abandoning Car Ownership and Driving

Petition: Reject the Newark Natural Gas Power Plant

The Data Centers LLC wants to build a plant right next to one of the highest-density residential areas in Delaware. The manager and staff of the City of Newark have been working behind-the-scenes to bring the power plant to Newark for nearly a year before the public learned about the project. With more than adequate surplus on the grid, this is a terrible idea for the environment, our health, and quality of life for generations to come.

Greenhouse Gases:

• Carbon Dioxide (CO2): 899,692 tons/year (4th highest in New Castle County)
• Methane: 54 tons/year (11th highest in New Castle County)

Health Concerns:

• Nitrogen Oxides (NOx):  74 tons/year (7th highest in New Castle County)

Quantities not yet disclosed:

• Carbon Monoxide
• Sulfur Dioxides
• Particle Pollution
• Volatile Organic Compounds
• Sulfuric Acid Mist
• Hazardous Air Pollutants
• Ammonia

Sign this on-line petition today, demanding that University of Delaware President Patrick Harker withdraw this proposal.

Related: Gas Fired Power Plant Proposed For UD's STAR Campus

What kind of legacy will the University of Delaware leave?

This, according to the University of Delaware's official Climate Action webpage:

On Earth Day 2009, the University of Delaware announced detailed plans to cut campus‐wide emissions by 20% by 2020. This action plan is among the most aggressive commitments by any University or College in the world. In announcing the University's Climate Action Plan, President Harker also set interim targets for carbon emissions, including reductions of 5 percent by 2012 and 10 percent by 2015, compared with the 2008 levels that were measured in a comprehensive carbon inventory of the campus.

Not what we expect from a "green" university.

With such an "aggressive" commitment on the part of UD, the last thing one would expect for the new STAR Campus is a CO2 belching gas fired power plant, which will find itself among the State's Top 10 worst polluters. We would expect the announcement of plans for a sustainable energy source, like that of Freshkills Park, a former landfill on Staten Island. Freshkills will be home to New York’s largest solar power facility, doubling the city’s current renewable energy capacity. It will sit on 45 acres of green space, with the potential to generate up to 10MW of power, enough for approx  2,000 homes.

Freshkills Park, with its vast solar arrays, could power almost half the homes in Newark.

Solar arrays can even be built over parking lots, generating
megawatts of power while keeping the interiors cool.

A large enough solar farm, feeding the grid and supplemented by DelMarva Power, would put the University of Delaware in good standing with its neighbors, and its host, the City of Newark. Time will tell whether UD is more committed to short term profits, or the quality of our environment, health, and quality of life.

Visit No Newark Power Plant's Facebook page for all the latest events and details.

UD and our Governor need to do the right thing . . . for them.

View past blog posts on the proposed Power Plant HERE. Read the latest article in the WNJ.

Delaware's Bike (and Carcinogen) Friendly Governor

Gov. Jack pedals past Delaware's refineries during

the 2007 Tour of Delaware.

Cross-posted from The Delaware Way

Delaware Governor Jack Markell fielded a question about the power plant proposed for Newark on NPR's Radio Times on Friday. Says because they lived with Chrysler for 50 years, Newarkers deserve more pollution?

A friend writes: Someone has to challenge the Governor on his rhetoric that under his watch Delaware has dropped emissions more than any other state and point out that it was a market function and not any action on his administration's part (coal plants being shut down because of the poor economics of coal to NRG not because DNREC shut these facilities down)

No Newark Power Plant writes ~

Gov. Jack Markell was on Radio Times Friday, 2/7/14 and this is our response to him. Start listening at minute 28:11 to hear him tell Newarkers that because they lived with Chrysler for 50 years, they deserve more pollution.

With a comment ~

I am hugely disappointed in Jack. So far, he has been great for helping facilitate active and green transportation modes. But where gains are made here, TDC's power plant is a big step backwards.  ~ Frank Warnock

Read the complete story from our friends at Delaware Way.

On tour in 2004, just one of dozens of streams I encountered in West Virginia that is over run with toxic chemicals from fossil fuel extraction processes, in this case, mining of coal. We had hoped Governor Markell's legacy would be one of healthy living, including active and sustainable transportation, but now we're not so sure.

UD absent when it comes to coaxing students out of cars

Five Ways Colleges Are Coaxing Students Out of Their Cars

By Angie Schmitt -- The University of Wisconsin-Madison provides bike valet at its football games. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill supports free transit for everyone in the region. The University of California, Irvine launched a bike-share system in 2009, long before any major city in California had done so.

American colleges and universities are leaders in reducing driving and promoting sustainable transportation. It allows colleges to make good on their commitments to protecting the environment. It makes life easier for students and staff. And, perhaps most critically, it’s saving schools big money on parking. Stanford University estimates its efforts to reduce solo car commuting have saved the school from sinking $100 million into the construction and maintenance of parking facilities.

Here are some of the smart ways universities have been able to reduce solo car travel, according to a new report by the U.S. Public Interest Research Group. PIRG is recommending cities hurry up and follow their lead. [Continue reading ...]

Poster's note: Another example of the University of Delaware falling behind and failing to progress when it comes to sustainability. As this article demonstrates, a lot more can be done to encourage car-free or car-lite living among students and faculty, thereby reducing congestion, noise, and carbon pollution on campus and city streets. Visit UD's Transportation Page to find out what is available, which doesn't include much in the way of incentives. 

Above: Cambridge University, in the UK, where even the POSH are denied having motor cars. Try and imagine what traffic would look like if this were not the case. You can view UD's Sustainable Climate Action Plan from 2008, which is supposed to guide the University in active and green transportation, among others.

Another example of UD's disregard for their own Sustainable Climate Action Plan can be found HERE.

Newark Power Plant Demonstration Draws Record Numbers

From Delaware On-Line -- The group Newark Residents Against the Power Plant held a candlelight vigil outside the municipal building here at dusk Wednesday, urging the city to find the proposed data-center project fails to meet the terms of Newark’s zoning code.

Leaders of the group called on city officials to “make the right decision” and deny a request for zoning verification from The Data Centers LLC. The company wants to build a data-processing facility and 248-megawatt power plant on 43 acres of the former Chrysler assembly plant.

More than 200 lined up along South Main Street Wednesday. Most carried candles, while others held red signs showing their opposition against the proposed plant.

“We’re here to reach out to the city, the City Council and the staff to ask them to make the right decision,” said Jen Wallace, one of the organizers. While the group’s members have different issues with the power plant, Wallace said they were all united by their opposition to it. “There’s actually lots of varied concerns about this project.”  [Full article ...]

Poster's note: A hearty round of applause for these Newark Residents - many on bicycles - who answered this 11th hour call to action. Backwards thinking, profits, and greed should never trump environment and quality of life. Yet this is exactly what the University of Delaware is threatening to do by turning the STAR Campus into one of the State's top 10 worst polluters. Shame on Gov. Jack Markell, Senator Chris Coons, and other legislators who have come out supporting this project at a time when Delaware's air quality is already unsafe. Climate change is another factor that goes unmentioned. Visit the No Newark Power Plant website for further details, and consider becoming involved!

Hubbert's Curve, and what it could mean for bicycling

M. King Hubbert accurately predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil production would peak between 1965 and 1971. He was correct. The Hubbert logistic model, now called Hubbert Peak Theory, and its variants have been used to describe and predict the peak and decline of production from regions, and countries, and has also been applied to other limited resource production domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical logistic distribution curve (sometimes incorrectly compared to a normal distribution) based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures. Now, as demonstrated in the chart below, we have many predictions for world oil production, with most going into decline after 2010.

There are numerous predictions, but most follow a similar curve. Despite mass media frenzy, Fracking will never see the U.S. return to 1973 production levels, is disastrous to the environment, and is only delaying the inevitable.

Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, predict negative global economy implications following a post-peak production decline and oil price increase because of the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural, and industrial systems on the low cost and high availability of oil. Where bicycling is concerned, the prospects could be enormous. 1973, the year of the Arab Oil Embargo, still holds the record for bicycle sales in America. Like snow shovels at Home Depot on the eve of a blizzard, bike shops couldn't keep bicycles in stock.

According to the National Bicycle Dealers Association, sales rocketed to 15.2 million units (20+" wheel size) in 1973. It was obvious why. Not only was gasoline very expensive, but station owners set their pumps to run at a trickle, causing massive lines. Often times, fights would ensue when someone was suspected of cutting in line. And those of us who biked back then remember a terrible increase in driver impatience and aggression. Folks looked for anything they could find to save gas, and unfortunately, went about it with rage. But it did provide a much needed boost to the bicycle industry. Among the most popular models sold in the early '70s were the Peugeot UO8, Raleigh Grand Prix, Fuji Del Ray, Schwinn Varsity, among others. These bikes typically sold in the $100-$150 range.

So are we heading for a similar scenario all over again? It depends who you listen to. Industry analysts, of course, paint the rosiest picture - while others like James Howard Kunstler and the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas are certain we are heading into a long emergency that no alternative energy source can back fill.

One thing is for certain; should we see a steady decline in oil availability, the price of gasoline will rise dramatically, forcing many folks to think outside the box where transportation is concerned. It could be a windfall for bicycle companies, bike shops, co-ops, and anyone else involved in the manufacture, repair, and sale of bicycles. And depending on who you believe, it could happen very soon, perhaps by 2015 - this time permanently. Below is a documentary on the subject, with some very compelling arguments.

Related:
Have the Obits For Peak Oil Come Too Soon?
Fears of global oil crisis aired at Transatlantic Energy Security Dialogue

Gas Fired Power Plant Proposed For UD's STAR Campus

A proposed 279 MW gas fired power plant at the University of Delaware's STAR Campus in Newark would impact our health and the air we breath as bicyclists, and active Delawareans in general. Jamie Magee, a lifelong Newark resident and founding member of the Newark Bike Project, had this to say about the findings:

As someone who played outside daily in the 70s and 80s close enough to smell the Chrysler plant on some days, I feel a little insulted when supporters say the TDC project will be "better than Chrysler." Chrysler's problematic past is not one of the options right now. But to the extent that this comparison is made every week in editorials, I'm glad to finally see the following very factual rebuttal of that claim. Sadly, TDC's own projections of one of the worst pollutants, NOx, will in fact be HIGHER than that of Chrysler...

It has been found recently that vocal supporters of this project - most of whom it appears live outside of Newark - have been lying about source emissions as compared to the former Chrysler plant. Citizens and advocates are also dismayed given what we know about climate change, and the role fossil fueled power plants have in it. The University of Delaware tells us that STAR will be a center of innovation, including alternative energy and environmental sustainability "setting the stage for the campus as a vibrant healthy community by design". How a gas fired power plant with multiple smokestacks and visible fumes fits into this equation is not clear.

It's worth noting that Delaware City, adjacent to a refinery, is a noted cancer hot spot in the State. NOx, a pollutant with known negative human health effects, will be among the emissions from the power plant. The news has been kept very tightly under wraps by the City of Newark, the company proposing the power plant and the University of Delaware. City officials kept details of this proposed project private and have been in secret communications with Data Centers LLC, the West Chester, PA company behind the project, for over a year. View the timeline HERE.

Also gleaned from UD's STAR website:

An improved rail system will provide convenient, "green" transportation to the site for our clinical, academic, government, and business partners up and down the Eastern Seaboard in years to come.

As an earlier investigation showed, there appears to be no interest in bicycling as a form of "green transportation" on the campus. Plug-in cars are still largely dependent on fossil fuels as their ultimate source of power, and does nothing to address numerous socio-economic problems related to car dependency. Sadly, if you choose to ride your bike to work at Bloom Energy, or take it on the train to the Campus, there isn't even a bike rack to safely lock your bike. Maybe this will change in the future through the work of advocates, but it shouldn't have to be this way. Bicycle facilities, including bike lanes and pathways, should be on the drawing board well before actual construction.

Let's put a stop to STAR becoming industrial park instead of the Science, Technology, & Advanced Research center it was supposed to be. Let's help UD live up to its own mission of sustainability. Please Sign the petition today, and forward this link on to others!